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WHO Communicable Disease Surveillance & Response (CSR)
Case Definitions for Surveillance of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
(SARS)
Objective
To describe the epidemiology of SARS and to monitor the magnitude
and the spread of this disease, in order to provide advice on prevention
and control.
Case definitions (revised 1 May 2003)
Introduction
The surveillance case definitions based on available clinical and epidemiological
data are now being supplemented by a number of laboratory tests and will
continue to be reviewed as tests currently used in research settings become
more widely available as diagnostic tests. Preliminary
clinical description of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome summarizes
what is currently known about the clinical features of SARS. Countries
may need to adapt case definitions depending on their own disease situation.
Retrospective surveillance is not expected.
Clinicians are advised that patients should not have
their case definition category downgraded while awaiting results of laboratory
testing or on the bases of negative results. See Use
of laboratory methods for SARS diagnosis.
Suspect case
1. A person presenting after 1 November 20021
with history of:
- high fever (>38 °C)
AND
- cough or breathing difficulty
AND one or more of the following exposures during the 10 days prior
to onset of symptoms:
- close contact2 with a person who is a suspect
or probable case of SARS;
- history of travel, to an area
with recent local transmission of SARS
- residing in an area with
recent local transmission of SARS
2. A person with an unexplained acute respiratory
illness resulting in death after 1 November 2002,1 but on whom
no autopsy has been performed
AND one or more of the following exposures during to 10 days prior
to onset of symptoms:
- close contact,2 with a person who is a suspect
or probable case of SARS;
- history of travel to an area
with recent local transmission of SARS
- residing in an area with
recent local transmission of SARS
Probable case
1. A suspect case with radiographic evidence of infiltrates consistent
with pneumonia or respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) on chest X-ray (CXR).
2. A suspect case of SARS that is positive for SARS coronavirus
by one or more assays. See Use of laboratory methods for
SARS diagnosis.
3. A suspect case with autopsy findings consistent with
the pathology of RDS without an identifiable cause.
Exclusion criteria
A case should be excluded if an alternative diagnosis can fully explain
their illness.
Reclassification of cases
As SARS is currently a diagnosis of exclusion, the status of a reported
case may change over time. A patient should always be managed as clinically
appropriate, regardless of their case status.
- A case initially classified as suspect or probable, for
whom an alternative diagnosis can fully explain the illness, should be
discarded after carefully considering the possibility of co-infection.
- A suspect case who, after investigation, fulfils the
probable case definition should be reclassified as "probable".
- A suspect case with a normal CXR should be treated, as
deemed appropriate, and monitored for 7 days. Those cases in whom recovery
is inadequate should be re-evaluated by CXR.
- Those suspect cases in whom recovery is adequate but
whose illness cannot be fully explained by an alternative diagnosis should
remain as "suspect".
- A suspect case who dies, on whom no autopsy is conducted,
should remain classified as "suspect". However, if this case is identified
as being part of a chain transmission of SARS, the case should be reclassified
as "probable".
- If an autopsy is conducted and no pathological evidence
of RDS is found, the case should be "discarded".
1 The surveillance period begins
on 1 November 2002 to capture cases of atypical pneumonia in China now
recognized as SARS. International transmission of SARS was first reported
in March 2003 for cases with onset in February 2003.
2 Close contact: having cared
for, lived with, or had direct contact with respiratory secretions or body
fluids of a suspect or probable case of SARS.
Reporting procedures
- All probable SARS categories should be managed in the same way
for the purposes of infection control and outbreak containment See
Management
of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).
-At this time, WHO is maintaining surveillance for clinically
apparent cases only ie probable and suspect cases of SARS. (Testing
of clinically well contacts of probable or suspect SARS cases and community
based serological surveys are being conducted as part of epidemiological
studies which may ultimately change our understanding of SARS transmission.
However, persons who test SARS CoV positive in these studies will not be
notified as SARS cases to WHO at this time).
- Where laboratory tests are not available or not done,
probable SARS cases as currently defined above should continue to be reported
in the agreed format.
- Suspect cases with positive laboratory results will be
reclassified as probable cases for notification purposes only if the
testing laboratories use appropriate quality control procedures.
- No distinction will be made between probable cases with
or without a positive laboratory result and suspect cases with a positive
result for the purposes of global surveillance. WHO will negotiate sentinel
surveillance of SARS with selected partners to collect detailed epidemiological,
laboratory and clinical data.
- Cases that meet the surveillance case definition for
SARS should not be discarded on the basis of negative laboratory tests
at this time.
Rationale for retaining the current surveillance case
definitions for SARS
The reason for retaining the clinical and epidemiological basis for
the case definitions is that at present there is no validated, widely and
consistently available test for infection with the SARS coronavirus. Antibody
tests may not become positive for three or more weeks after the onset of
symptoms. We do not yet know if all patients will mount an antibody response.
Molecular assays must be performed using appropriate reagents and controls
under strictly controlled conditions, and may not be positive in the early
stages of illness using currently available reagents. We are not yet able
to define the optimal specimen to be tested at any given stage of the illness.
This information is accruing as more tests are being performed on patients
with known exposures and/or accompanied by good clinical and epidemiological
information. We hope that in the near future an accessible and validated
diagnostic assay(s) will become available which can be employed with confidence
at a defined, early stage of the illness.
Preliminary Clinical Description of Severe
Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) is a disease
of unknown etiology that has been described in patients in Asia, North
America, and Europe. The information in this report provides a summary
of the clinical characteristics of SARS patients treated in Hong Kong Special
Administrative Region (China), Taiwan (China), Thailand, Singapore, the
United Kingdom, Slovenia, Canada and the United States since mid-February
2003. This information is preliminary and subject to limitations because
of the broad and non-specific case definition.
Most patients identified as of March 21, 2003 have been
previously healthy adults aged 25-70 years. A few suspected cases of SARS
have been reported among children (15 years or less).
The incubation period of SARS is usually 2-7 days but may be as long
as 10 days. The illness generally begins with a prodrome of fever (>38°C),
which is often high, sometimes associated with chills and rigors and sometimes
accompanied by other symptoms including headache, malaise, and myalgias.
At the onset of illness, some cases have mild respiratory symptoms. Typically,
rash and neurologic or gastrointestinal findings are absent, although a
few patients have reported diarrhoea during the febrile prodrome.
After 3-7 days, a lower respiratory phase begins with
the onset of a dry, non-productive cough or dyspnea that may be accompanied
by or progress to hypoxemia. In 10%-20% of cases, the respiratory illness
is severe enough to require intubation and mechanical ventilation. The
case fatality among persons with illness meeting the current WHO case definition
for probable and suspected cases of SARS is around 3%.
Chest radiographs may be normal during the febrile prodrome
and throughout the course of illness. However, in a substantial proportion
of patients, the respiratory phase is characterized by early focal infiltrates
progressing to more generalized, patchy, interstitial infiltrates. Some
chest radiographs from patients in the late stages of SARS have also shown
areas of consolidation.
Early in the course of disease, the absolute lymphocyte
count is often decreased. Overall white cell counts have generally been
normal or decreased. At the peak of the respiratory illness, up to half
of patients have leukopenia and thrombocytopenia or low-normal platelet
counts (50,000-150,000 / microliter). Early in the respiratory phase, elevated
creatine phosphokinase levels (up to 3000 IU / L) and hepatic transaminases
(2- to 6-times the upper limits of normal) have been noted. Renal function
has remained normal in the majority of patients.
Treatment regimens have included a variety of antibiotics
to presumptively treat known bacterial agents of atypical pneumonia. In
several locations, therapy has also included antiviral agents such as oseltamivir
or ribavirin. Steroids have also been given orally or intravenously to
patients in combination with ribavirin and other antimicrobials. At present,
the most efficacious treatment regime, if any is unknown.
Use of laboratory methods for SARS diagnosis
Recommendations on interpretation
of laboratory results
Positive SARS diagnostic test findings
a) Confirmed positive PCR for SARS virus:
-at least 2 different clinical specimens (eg nasopharyngeal
and stool)
OR
- the same clinical specimen collected on 2 or more days
during the course of the illness (eg 2 or more nasopharyngeal aspirates)
OR
-2 different assays or repeat PCR using the original clinical
sample on each occasion of testing
b) Seroconversion by ELISA or IFA:
-negative antibody test on acute serum followed by positive
antibody test on convalescent serum
OR
- four-fold or greater rise in antibody titre between acute
and convalescent phase sera tested in parallel
c) Virus isolation:
-Isolation of SARS-CoV in cell culture from any specimen
with PCR confirmation using a validated method.
Confirmation of positive PCR
-The PCR procedure should include appropriate negative
and positive controls in each run, which should yield the expected results:
1 negative control for the extraction procedure and 1 water control for
the PCR run
1 positive control for extraction and PCR run
the patient sample spiked with a weak positive control to detect PCR inhibitory
substances (inhibition control)
-If a positive PCR result has been obtained, it should
be confirmed by:
repeating the PCR using the original sample
OR
having the same sample tested in a second laboratory.
Amplifying a second genome region could further increase
test specificity
Recommendations for laboratories
testing for SARS
Reference laboratories should be identified at national level.
PCR testing
Laboratories testing for SARS by PCR should already have experience
with PCR testing. They should adopt quality control procedures and identify
a partner laboratory in their country or among the WHO collaborating research
laboratories listed in Multi-centre
Collaborative Network: Laboratories testing for SARS to cross-check
their positive findings.
Laboratories performing SARS specific PCR tests should
adopt strict criteria for confirmation of positive results , especially
in low prevalence areas, where the positive predictive value might be lower.
A PCR-kit for SARS is commercially available, including
internal controls. PCR primers and procedures have been published and can
be adapted by laboratories. Positive control RNA is available from the
Bernhard-Nocht Institute in Hamburg, Germany.
The sensitivity of PCR tests for SARS depends on the specimen
and the time of testing during the course of the illness. This may result
in real cases of SARS testing negative by PCR (false negative results).
Sensitivity can be increased if multiple specimens/ multiple body sites
are tested.
The specificity of PCR tests for SARS is excellent if technical
procedures used follow quality control guidelines. False positive results
may arise as a result of technical problems (e.g. laboratory contamination),
so every positive PCR test should be verified.
Antibody testing
ELISA and IFA tests are being developed by research laboratories.
Because SARS a new disease in humans, SARS-CoV antibodies
are not found in populations that have not been exposed to the virus.
An antibody rise between acute and convalescent phase sera
tested in parallel is very specific.
Affected Areas - Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
(SARS)
30 April 2003
| Country |
Area |
| Canada |
Toronto |
| Singapore |
Singapore |
| China |
Beijing, Guangdong, Hong Kong Special
Administrative Region of China, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi
Taiwan Province* |
| United States of America |
Areas not reported* |
| United Kingdom |
London* |
An "Affected Area" is defined as a region at the first
administrative level where the country is reporting local transmission
of SARS, within the last 20 days.
*Area with limited local transmission and no evidence of international
spread from area since 15 March 2003 and no transmission other than close
person-to-person contact reported.
Areas with recent local transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory
Syndrome (SARS)
12 May 2003
This table, updated daily, is provided to public health
professionals and clinicians around the world to assist with the identification
and reporting of SARS cases as described in the WHO case
definitions.
| Country |
Area |
Pattern of local transmission |
| Canada |
Toronto |
B |
| China |
Beijing |
C |
| China |
Guangdong |
C |
| China |
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China |
C |
| China |
Inner Mongolia |
Uncertain |
| China |
Shanxi |
C |
| China |
Tianjin |
Uncertain |
| China |
Taipei |
C |
| Philippines |
Manila |
B |
| Singapore |
Singapore |
B |
Notes:
Local transmission has occurred when one or more reported
probable cases of SARS have most likely acquired their infection locally
regardless of the setting in which this may have occurred. If no new locally
acquired cases are identified 20 days after the last reported locally acquired
probable case died or was appropriately isolated, the area will be removed
from this list.
Pattern A
Imported probable SARS case(s) have produced only one generation of
local probable cases, all of whom are direct personal contacts of the imported
case(s).
Pattern B
More than one generation of local probable SARS cases, but only among
persons that have been previously identified and followed-up as known contacts
of probable SARS cases.
Pattern C
Local probable cases occurring among persons who have not been previously
identified as known contacts of probable SARS cases.
Pattern Uncertain
Insufficient information available to specify areas or extent of local
transmission.
*WHO is currently recommending, as a measure of precaution,
that people planning to travel to these areas consider postponing all but
essential travel.
Management of Severe Acute Respiratory
Syndrome (SARS)
These guidelines are constantly reviewed and updated as new information
becomes available. They are compiled to provide a generic basis on which
national health authorities may wish to develop guidelines applicable to
their own particular circumstance.
Revised 11 April 2003
Please refer to Case Definitions for Surveillance of
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
Management of Suspect and Probable SARS Cases
-
Hospitalize under isolation or cohort with other suspect or probable SARS
cases (see Hospital Infection Control Guidance
)
-
Take samples (sputum, blood, sera, urine,) to exclude standard causes of
pneumonia (including atypical causes); consider possibility of coinfection
with SARS and take appropriate chest radiographs.
-
Take samples to aid clinical diagnosis SARS including:
White blood cell count, platelet count, creatine phosphokinase, liver
function tests, urea and electrolytes, C reactive protein and paired sera.
(Pair sera will be invaluable in the understanding of SARS even if the
patient is later not considered a SARS case)
-
At the time of admission the use of antibiotics for the treatment of community-acquired
pneumonia with atypical cover is recommended
-
Pay particular attention to therapies/interventions which may cause aerolization
such as the use of nebulisers with a bronchodilator, chest physiotherapy,
bronchoscopy, gastroscopy, any procedure/intervention which may disrupt
the respiratory tract. Take the appropriate precautions (isolation facility,
gloves, goggles, mask, gown, etc. ) if you feel that patients require the
intervention/therapy.
-
In SARS, numerous antibiotic therapies have been tried with no clear effect.
Ribavirin with or without use of steroids has been used in an increasing
number of patients. But, in the absence of clinical indicators, its effectiveness
has not been proven. It has been proposed that a coordinated multicentred
approach to establishing the effectiveness of ribavirin therapy and other
proposed interventions be examined.
Definition of a SARS Contact
A contact is a person who may be at greater risk of developing
SARS because of exposure to a suspect or probable case of SARS. Information
to date suggests that risky exposures include having cared for, lived with,
or having had direct contact with the respiratory secretions, body fluids
and/or excretion (e.g. faeces) of a suspect or probable cases of SARS.
Management of Contacts of Probable SARS Cases
-
Give information on clinical picture, transmission, etc. of SARS to the
contact
-
Place under active surveillance for 10 days and recommend voluntary home
isolation
-
Ensure contact is visited or telephoned daily by a member of the public
health care team
-
Record temperature daily
-
If the contact develops disease symptoms, the contact should be investigated
locally at an appropriate health care facility
-
The most consistent first symptom that is likely to appear is fever
Management of Contacts of Suspect SARS Cases
As a minimum the following follow up is recommended:
-
Give information on clinical picture, transmission etc of SARS to the contact
-
Place under passive surveillance for 10 days
-
If the contact develops any symptoms, the contact should self report via
the telephone to the public health authority
-
Contact is free to continue with usual activities
-
The most consistent first symptom which is likely to appear is fever
Most national health authorities may wish to consider
risk assessment on an individual basis and supplement the guidelines for
the management of contacts of suspected SARS cases accordingly.
Removal from Follow up
If as a result of investigations, suspected or probable
cases of SARS are discarded (no longer meet suspect or probable case definitions)
then contacts can be discharged from follow up.
Hospital Infection Control Guidance for Severe
Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
Revised 24 April 2003
Outpatient/triage setting
-
Those presenting to health care facilities who require assessment for SARS
should be rapidly diverted by triage nurses to a separate area to minimize
transmission to others
-
Those patients should be given a face mask to wear, preferably one that
provides filtration of their expired air.
-
Staff involved in the triage process should wear a face mask (see below)
and eye protection and wash hands before and after contact with any patient,
after activities likely to cause contamination and after removing gloves
-
Wherever possible, patients under investigation for SARS should be separated
from the probable cases.
-
Soiled gloves, stethoscopes and other equipment have the potential to spread
infection.
-
Disinfectants such as fresh bleach solutions, should be widely available
at appropriate concentrations.
Inpatient setting
Care for probable SARS cases (see Case
Definitions for Surveillance of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
-
Probable SARS cases should be isolated and accommodated as follows in descending
order of preference:
-
negative pressure rooms with the door closed
-
single rooms with their own bathroom facilities
-
cohort placement in an area with an independent air supply, exhaust system
and bathroom facilities
-
Turning off air conditioning and opening windows for good ventilation is
recommended if an independent air supply is unfeasible. Please ensure that
if windows are opened they are away from public places
-
WHO advises strict adherence to the barrier nursing of patients with SARS,
using precautions for airborne, droplet and contact transmission
-
All staff, including ancilliary staff should be trained in the infection
control measures required for the care of such a patient
-
A member of staff must be identified who will have the responsibility of
observing the practice of others and provide feedback on infection control
-
Disposable equipment should be used wherever possible in the treatment
and care of patients with SARS and disposed of appropriately. If devices
are to be reused, they should be sterilized in accordance with manufacturers’
instructions. Surfaces should be cleaned with broad spectrum disinfectants
of proven antiviral activity
-
Movement of patients outside of the isolation unit should be avoided. If
moved the patients should wear a face mask
-
Visitors, if allowed by the health care facility should be kept to a minimum.
They should be issued with personal protective equipment (PPE) and supervised
-
All non-essential staff (including students) should not be allowed on the
unit/ward
-
Handwashing is crucial: therefore access to clean water is essential
Hands should be washed before and after contact with any patient, after
activities likely to cause contamination and after removing gloves
-
Alcohol-based skin disinfectants could be used if there is no obvious organic
material contamination
-
Particular attention should be paid to interventions such as the use of
nebulisers, chest physiotherapy, bronchoscopy or gastroscopy; any other
intervention which may disrupt the respiratory tract or place the healthcare
worker in close proximity to the patient and potentially infected secretions.
-
PPE should be worn by all staff and visitors accessing the isolation unit
-
The PPE worn in this situation should include:
A face mask providing appropriate respiratory protection (see
below)
Single pair of gloves
Eye protection
Disposable gown
Apron
Footwear that can be decontaminated
-
All sharps should be dealt with promptly and safely
-
Linen from the patients should be prepared on site for the laundry staff.
Appropriate PPE should be worn in this preparation and the linen should
be put into biohazard bags
-
The room should be cleaned by staff wearing PPE using a broad spectrum
disinfectant of proven antiviral activity
-
Specific advice concerning air conditioning units will be available soon
-
Respiratory protection. This should where feasible be provided at *P100/FFP3,
or P99/FFP2 filter level (99.97% and 99% efficiency respectively). *N95
filters (95% filter efficiency) also provide high levels of protection
and could be worn where no acceptable higher protection alternatives are
available for example staff working in triage areas, prior to isolation.
Ideally, the masks used should be fit tested using an appropriate "fit
test kit" in accordance with the manufacturing instructions. Disposable
masks should not be reused.
*N/R/P 95/99/100 or FFP 2/3 or an equivalent national
manufacturing standard (NIOSH (N,R,P 95,99,100) or European CE EN149:2001(FFP
2,3) and EN143:2000 (P2) or comparable national/regional standards applicable
to the country of manufacture.
First data on stability and resistance of SARS coronavirus compiled
by members of WHO laboratory network
The below table provides the first compilation of data
on resistance of the SARS Coronavirus against environmental factors and
disinfectants. This information has been provided by Members of the WHO
multi-center collaborative network on SARS diagnosis . More detailed
information on methods utilized and material used is being compiled and
will be available shortly. The major conclusions from these studies are:
Virus survival in stool and urine
-
Virus is stable in faeces(and urine) at room temperature for at least 1-2
days.
-
Virus is more stable (up to 4 days) in stool from diarrhea patients (which
has higher pH than normal stool).
Disinfectants and fixatives (for use in laboratories)
-
Virus loses infectivity after exposure to different commonly used disinfectants
and fixatives.
Virus survival in cell-culture supernatant
-
Only minimal reduction in virus concentration after 21 days at 4°C and
-80°C.
-
Reduction in virus concentration by one log only at stable room temperature
for 2 days. This would indicate that the virus is more stable than the
known human coronaviruses under these conditions.
-
Heat at 56°C kills the SARS coronavirus at around 10000 units per 15 min
(quick reduction).
| Lab* |
Substrate |
Initial viral count log10PFU |
Condition |
Survival time |
Method of testing viability |
| GVU |
virus spiked in baby stool |
1.00E+03
|
pH 6-7 |
3 hr |
Virus isolation in cell
culture |
| |
virus spiked in normal stool |
7.50E+03
|
pH 8 |
6hr |
Virus isolation in cell
culture |
| |
virus in diarrheal stool |
7.50E+03
|
pH 9 |
4days |
Virus isolation in cell
culture |
| QMH |
stool |
1.00E+03
|
Room Temperature |
at least 2 days |
Virus isolation in cell
culture |
| |
urine |
1.00E+03
|
Room Temperature |
at least 24 hr |
Virus isolation in cell
culture |
| |
Virus culture medium+ 1%
bovine serum |
1.00E+03
|
on plastic surface in room
temperature |
at least 2 days |
Virus isolation in cell
culture |
| |
Virus culture medium+ 1%
bovine serum |
1.00E+04
|
30-37°C |
at least 1hr |
Virus isolation in
cell culture |
| |
Virus culture medium+
1% fetal calf serum |
1.00E+04
|
56°C |
degration of titre over
time (10 000 infectious virus units in 15 min) |
Virus isolation in
cell culture |
| |
virus in Acetone, 10%
Formaldehyde and Paraformaldehyde, 10% Clorox, 75%ethanol, 2% phenol |
1.00E+06
|
Room Temperature |
less than 5 min |
Virus isolation in
cell culture |
| NIID |
Virus culture+ 2% bovine
serum |
1.00E+06
|
minus 80°C |
at least 4 days |
Virus isolation and
RT-PCR |
| |
Virus culture+ 2% fetal
calf serum |
1.00E+06
|
4°C |
at least 4 days |
Virus isolation and
RT-PCR |
| |
Virus culture+ 2% fetal
calf serum |
1.00E+06
|
37°C |
less than 4 days |
Virus isolation and
RT-PCR |
| |
Virus culture+ 2% fetal
calf serum |
1.00E+05
|
56°C |
less than 30min |
|
| UniM |
Virus culture |
1.00E+06
|
4°C |
at least 21 days |
Virus isolation |
| |
Virus culture |
1.00E+06
|
minus 80°C |
at least 21 days |
Virus isolation |
GVU: Government Virus Unit, Dept. of Health, Hong Kong,
SAR China
QMH: Queen Mary Hospital, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong,
SAR China
NIID: National Institute of infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan
UnivM: University Marburg, Germany
Radiological
Appearances of Recent Cases of Atypical Pneumonia in Hong Kong

The Lancet, Published online May 7, 2003
Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent
of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong
Christl A Donnelly, Azra C Ghani, Gabriel
M Leung, Anthony J Hedley, Christophe Fraser, Steven Riley, Laith J Abu-Raddad,
Lai-Ming Ho, Thuan-Quoc Thach, Patsy Chau, King-Pan Chan, Tai-Hing Lam,
Lai-Yin Tse, Thomas Tsang, Shao-Haei Liu, James H B Kong, Edith M C Lau,
Neil M Ferguson, Roy M Anderson
Summary
Background Health authorities worldwide, especially in the Asia
Pacific region, are seeking effective public-health interventions in the
continuing epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). We assessed
the epidemiology of SARS in Hong Kong.
Methods We included 1425 cases reported up to April 28, 2003.
An integrated database was constructed from several sources containing
information on epidemiological, demographic, and clinical variables. We
estimated the key epidemiological distributions: infection to onset, onset
to admission, admission to death, and admission to discharge. We measured
associations between the estimated case fatality rate and patients' age
and the time from onset to admission.
Findings After the initial phase of exponential growth, the
rate of confirmed cases fell to less than 20 per day by April 28. Public-health
interventions included encouragement to report to hospital rapidly after
the onset of clinical symptoms, contact tracing for confirmed and suspected
cases, and quarantining, monitoring, and restricting the travel of contacts.
The mean incubation period of the disease is estimated to be 6·4 days (95%
CI 5·2-7·7). The mean time from onset of clinical symptoms to admission
to hospital varied between 3 and 5 days, with longer times earlier in the
epidemic. The estimated case fatality rate was 13·2% (9·8-16·8) for patients
younger than 60 years and 43·3% (35·2-52·4) for patients aged 60 years
or older assuming a parametric g distribution. A non-parametric method
yielded estimates of 6·8% (4·0-9·6) and 55·0% (45·3-64·7), respectively.
Case clusters have played an important part in the course of the epidemic.
Interpretation Patients' age was strongly associated with outcome.
The time between onset of symptoms and admission to hospital did not alter
outcome, but shorter intervals will be important to the wider population
by restricting the infectious period before patients are placed in quarantine.
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